May 29, 2005

Orders of magnitude

"We have a cherished symbolism about the 'sanctity of a single life.' But perhaps our morality has gone astray when it comes to numbers. Emotionally we get choked up about a little girl getting killed -- especially if we can see her picture -- but we do not feel emotionally touched by thousands of people being wiped out by a tidal wave or an earthquake. Somehow we must learn that our grief should rise monotonically with the magnitude of a catastrophe. Numbers are important.

"Charles Fried (1970) pointed out that as a society, we are romantic sentimentalists. We're willing to spend a lot more money on rescue than on prevention -- more to save trapped miners and marooned astronauts than to save many more statistical anonymous lives. If we conjure up a face, we can empathize with the victim.

"If a public official acts to save lives, he gets more kudos if he can point to 10 specific identifiable persons who have been saved than if he can prove conclusively that 1000 lives have been saved but can't identify who these people are."

Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs
Ralph L. Keeney and Howard Raiffa, 1976

Posted by Jeffrey at May 29, 2005 1:33 AM
What is a TrackBack? Learn more here.

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.geekable.com/cgi-bin/mt-tb.cgi/853

Listed below are links to the 0 weblogs that reference 'Orders of magnitude' from Geekable.com.